Research

PhD student @ University of Warwick

• CV: relevant, extended, html (autogenerated by Pandoc)
• Blogs: The Winding Number, Copypasta
• Github: github
• Profiles: LessWrong, Stack Exchange, Twitter
• Also profiles: LinkedIn, GScholar, ORCID

I'm interested in stuff at the intersection of markets and AI.

Stuff I've done:

[NOW]: doing now; [SUP]: maintaining/supporting; [...]: archived.

• [NOW] Reinforcement Learning from Recursive Information Market Feedback
• [NOW] Market-based architectures in RL and beyond
• [SUP] A consistency benchmark for LLM forecasters, an arbitrage-based metric to for measuring logical inconsistency and ArbitrageForecaster, the "Platt scaling of inconsistency"
• [SUP] Prediction markets for non-verifiable non-falsifiable sentences
• [SUP] The Scalable Oversight Benchmark
• [SUP] costly, a Python package for automatically estimating costs of complex LLM workflows before you run them
• [SUP] pramaana, which is to Zotero what pass is to Bitwarden
• [...] other random stuff on my CV (see above)

Deferred due to lack of time:

• Prediction markets for latent space variables or "subjective" questions somehow
• Anthropic alignment, i.e. the ``just make AI situationally unaware'' approach which I think people have given up on too early

Deferred due to lack of urgency:

Other stuff I'm interested in but are currently somewhat low-priority because AGI is going to be a thing soon.

• Reformulating probability theory in terms of closed-under-computable-union sigma-algebras
• Market dynamics and bounded rationality
• "Interpretation" as a thing in intelligence, bounded rationality and thermodynamics
• Property rights theory, transaction costs, information asymmetry and thermodynamics
• Ways to better measure GDP, or better: Objective Utility
• My very sensible grammar concept
• Mathematical/computational models of state and war

Stuff I don't know but would like to:

• Statistical mechanics/thermodynamics
• Macroeconomics -- money, interest rates, debt, inflation
• Cryptostuff
• Quantum information/probability/computing theory (should finish writing my quantum mechanics article series at some point)
• List of things in math I have learned but not really understood

See also: bookmarks for a list of useful links and sitemap for some stuff on this website.